Intuitive scenario development methods

Abstract

Purpose of the article Scientific studies indicate that in order to successfully manage an organization in the modern external environment, it is important to apply future foresight methods within the planning context. This technique should be applied in a manner that enables foresight of developing factors in the forthcoming turbulent external environment as well as making proactive strategic management decisions that can prevent these organizations from losing competitive advantage. The intuitive scenario development method for the foresight of future uncertainties and developing proactive responses will be applied in this article. Intuitive scenario development is determined by the specificity of social research paradigm intuitive epistemological position assumptions. Methodology/methods Systematic and comparative analysis of scientific literature. Scientific aim To propose framework for intuitive scenario-building research based on the the interpretivism epistemology assumptions. Findings Systematic and comparative literature analysis reveals that intuitive scenarios are created from equivalent interpretivism epistemological qualitative methods. Future contingencies can be provided by applying Delphi interviews or using the future foresight workshop method. Intuitive scenarios are developed from creative writing techniques, with the quality of the scenario verified from expert evaluation method. Conclusions (limits, implications) In order to expand on the intuitive scenario development methodology, it is important to verify theoretically and empirically whether the methods discussed are sufficient to the hermeneutical methodology-based qualitative research.