Jurkynas, Mindaugas

The main aim of this study is to evaluate the impact of a potential visa waiver between the EU and the Russian Federation for the Lithuanian systems of internal, foreign affairs, customs and border control. The analysis will focus upon effects of the aforementioned visa free regime for the scope of legal and illegal migration, crime rates, the system of state border control, the organisation of police activities, the system of control of illegal migration, a financial burden for the system of asylum and general and future costs. Empirical data consists of interviews obtained at ministries of foreign affairs and the interior and the related institutions such as the Police Department, the Migration Department and the State Border Guard Service under the Ministry of the Interior, the Customs Department under the Ministry of Finance, from other officials and statistical data, official statements, and earlier studies. The study consists of five main parts: the political context for the potential visa waiver, its impact for the above-mentioned state institutions, the calculation of potential financial costs, and conclusions and recommendations. The two latter parts are to large extent future-oriented and these methodologically challenge an exact assessment of total costs of possible visa waiver. Besides, the analysis deliberately does not delve into possible benefits of EU-Russia visa freedom. The analysis unveils the negative impact of the possible visa free regime: a visa waiver would abolish the special Kaliningrad transition programme and its financing, increase general crime rates, activity of organised crime groups and potential for terrorism and human trafficking. Financial costs consisting of reduced EU financing, lost income and increased needs to strengthen public institutions would call for 16-17 million Litas in annual expenditures without additional costs and future projects worth, most likely, 40-85 million Litas.

Electoral behavior in new democracies has received significant attention, but patterns of party system development in post-communist countries still raise questions about politicization of societal conflicts and their relevance for the configuration of parties. The article discusses political manifestation of emerging cleavages. First, the study conceptualizes the notion of cleavage. The analysis then identifies the main divisive issues and their effect upon the party system. The social structure and electoral behavior helps to identify emerging cleavages. The article concludes that the formation of cleavages has not stabilized yet, and that to date, societal conflicts only have partial influence on the party system in Lithuania.

After the end of bipolarity in the international system a number of regions emerged in Europe. Their role and functions fall under academic scrutiny as a part of international relations. The dynamics of regional development encompasses internal characteristics, e.g., socio-cultural affinities, cooperative practices and external influences, be they originating from great/regional powers or other regional clusters. This study investigates the conceptualisation and development of the Baltic region. The analysis has an instrumental character by borrowing theoretical tools on regionalism from Rationalist and Reflectivist paradigms. Although these p.~radigms seem to be at loggerheads, my research attempts to combine the contrasting logics with the aim to better illustrate the Baltic case of regionalism. Rationalism supplies the explanatory internal and external factors shaping the region, whereas Reflectivism yields the relevance of political discourses about deliberate construction of regions. The first part of the investigation discusses concepts pertaining to region-building and theoretical approaches of regionalism. The second examines Baltic region-building. The conclusion defines the Baltic region as still existing external construct challenged by otherregional gravities, reflected both in political practices and discourses of political elites.