Rizikos vertinimas ekstremalių situacijų valdyme

Straipsnyje pateiktas apibendrintas ekstremalių situacijų rizikos valdymo modelis ir detaliai išanalizuotas pagrindinis ir sudėtingiausias jo etapas - rizikos vertinimas. Nuo šio vertinimo atlikimo kokybės priklauso rizikos valdymo efektyvumas ir veiksmingumas. Todėl pateikiami rizikos vertinimo metodikos metmenys, atskirai analizuojant kiekvieną iš 5 rizikos vertinimo žingsnį aplinkos, grėsmių, pažeidžiamumo, galimų pasekmių vertinime etapus ir pastarųjų rezultatus sujungiančią rizikos analizę. Siekiant įvertinti, kaip Lietuvos ekstremalių situacijų valdymo (ESV) sistemoje vykdomos rizikos vertinimo funkcijos, buvo atlikta įvairių ESV sistemos lygių specialistų anketinė apklausa. Straipsnyje pateikti apibendrinti apklausos rezultatai, nustatytos pagrindinės problemos šioje srityje ir suformuluoti siūlymai situacijai gerinti.

Disasters of the last decades have proved that what seemed to be incredible or almost impossible can become a cruel reality with tragic consequences. Meanwhile terrorists attacks in Madrid (year 2004) and in London (year 2005) have demonstrated that emergency can occur "from nowhere" without any warning signals. Likewise recent natural disasters with growing frequency and force of attacks bear along thousands of human lives and disorder economies for long time. Excellence of emergency preparedness is based on flexible Risk Assessment while proper Risk Management is a vital condition for efficient Emergency Management. The examples above motivate for broad and flexible Risk Assessment. For some time past faults in Emergency Management occurred not because Risk Assessment was absent, but because threats analysis and evaluation were based on wrong - cold war - paradigm, which does not represent reality of the modern world. Current conditions require following new "Risk Society" paradigm (reasoned by U.Beck). The essence of the paradigm is that welfare development in modern society has systematic link with risk development. This phenomenon can be explained in the way that fulfilment of growing human needs simultaneously creates, produces and distributes risks of techno-scientific nature. Therefore, distribution of welfare is transforming to distribution of risks. The issues in Emergency Management Systems to be solved are how to escape, minimize, manage or shift threats and risks produced in the light of "Risk Society". F. Zwicky, A. Wilson, T. Ritcey, C. A. Roper and many other scientists from different countries develop the mentioned paradigm in various ways. From different viewpoints., they create and improve principles, laws and techniques on Emergency Risk'Management.[...].