Economic security and tourism risk management

Abstract

Monitoring, analyzing, and forecasting the risks that lead to threats are key elements of economic security. To achieve economic security, it is necessary to minimize the risks and factors that have a negative impact on the economic sphere by making optimal use of the potential of various sectors of the economy. The use of tourism as an economic tool will have a positive impact on society, enterprises, and territorial associations through the diversification of risks, the development of infrastructure, the improvement of the image of regions, and other aspects. At the same time, there is a risk of various externalities due to environmental and social problems linked to the specific nature of tourism activities. The subject of this article is economic security and tourism risk management. The aim of the paper is to analyze the significance of tourism at all levels in the context of economic security and to develop a mechanism for managing the risks involved. Study objectives: • to set levels of economic security for tourism; • to analyze the contribution of tourism to economic development; • to carry out a tourism risk assessment on the basis of the main risks identified by experts, group them by means of factor analysis, carry out a survey of tourism service suppliers, and assess the identified risks – both external and internal – in terms of the negative impact they have and the likelihood of their occurrence for individual types of tourism activities; • to calculate an integrated risk index for the tourism complex; • to perform a multi-criteria assessment of the inbound tourism complex. Research methods: analysis of scientific literature, expert evaluation, factor analysis, COPRAS method. A survey of experts and the application of the multi-criteria COPRAS method led to the identification of the significance of risk factors. This method was then used to perform an integrated risk assessment. Studies have shown that the COPRAS method can be used to carry out risk assessments based on both quantitative and qualitative indicators. The results of a literature review show that in an economic risk assessment, 68 risk factors or risk assessment criteria have the highest significance in relation to external environmental factors. When comparing the significance of risk assessments in terms of the external and internal environment and personal risks faced by tourism service users, the results of an expert survey show that the most important risks are external environment risks and internal business risks. In contrast, the personal risk faced by tourism service users is rated at only 0.16, which means that the tourist’s exposure to risks depends primarily on external risk factors and the internal risks related to business service providers. The integrated risk index of the tourism complex by type of tourism is calculated, showing that the riskiest type of tourism is extreme sports tourism. The lowest risk in Lithuania’s inbound tourism sector is accounted for by winter wellness and medical tourism. This is due to low risk probability estimates for infrastructure, transport, and health. Extreme sports tourism has high risk ratings due to higher probabilities of economic losses related to health or injury, and other higher risks in the operational, infrastructure, and transport risk groups. The multi-criteria assessment of the inbound tourism complex allows risks to be analyzed according to the main categories and permits their comparison between the different areas of the tourism complex. This model is not only valuable for the assessment of risk in tourism complexes, but also for economic risk assessments of specific enterprises operating in the tourism sector.