Digital Modeling of the Impact of Energy Sector Transformations on the Economic Security of the EU

Abstract

The energy security of the EU is a current issue for all member countries. The EU’s energy policy aims for diversification of energy resources and energy independence. After 2022, this issue has worsened. The article analyzes the main risks to the energy security of EU countries and industries located in these countries. The dynamics of energy consumption by different sectors of the EU economy are considered and the impact of changes in the energy sector on the economic security of businesses is evaluated. Approaches to modeling the impact of transformations in the energy sector on the economic security of businesses are discussed. A simulation model of a three-sector energy market has been developed. The driver of changes in the model is the minimization of carbon emissions. Experiments were conducted to simulate the development of the energy market from 2012 to 2052. Digital modeling showed that in a case of “gas blackmail” the most probable scenario means increasing of dirty energy sources with high carbon emission.