Analysing Vegetation Cover Changes in Protected Areas: An Example from Lithuania

Abstract

Protected areas are implemented to safeguard natural and cultural values. Their level of protection largely dictates which socio-economic activities are allowed. Protected areas where nature protection objectives co-exist with socio-economic activities are exposed to their potential anthropogenic impacts, such as land use changes. Land use changes are an important driver of land degradation in protected areas. This study analyses the potential impact of land use changes in Lithuanian Regional and National Parks by analysing changes in vegetation cover. In a multitemporal analysis, this was done by calculating the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), a proxy commonly applied to infer vegetation change. NDVI values above 0.66 represent dense vegetation, which we selected to be analysed. NDVI was calculated using Landsat Imagery in a fiver year interval from 1990 to 2020. The analysis was done in Google Earth Engine and ArcGIS 10.8 platforms. The results show a general increase in dense vegetation cover from 1990 to 2020, although at different magnitudes in each park. Changes in comparison to 2020 were analysed, and the results suggest that until 2010/2015, there was an increase in dense vegetation cover. After this, most parks show stagnation or even a decrease. Principal analysis showed that most parks were clustered except Kauno Marios, Pajuris, Kursiu Nerija and Dzūkija parks.