Identitification of the scope of expected changes in national strategy documents: case study of Lithuania innovation strategy 2010-2020

Purpose. The article deals with the problems of identifying the future that is decoded in national strategic documents. Due to complexity of their writing process often public sector strategies include abstract and vague goals and objectives. They represent different, sometimes conflicting interpretations and do not indicate precisely desired changes in future. In order to understand what kind of future is presented in strategic document, the document should be analyzed through lens of different perceptions. Design/methodology/approach. The main research problem is the multiplicity and ambiguity of public strategic documents, in this particular study case – "Lithuanian Innovation Strategy 2010-2020". The article attempts to identify the scope of desired changes in "Lithuanian Innovation Strategy 2010-2020 by using method – Causal layered analysis (supported by narrative foresight). Research limitations/implications. The Causal layered analysis has its own drawbacks. During implementation of this method there is a need to identify and create idealistic definitions of problems and solutions for each perceptional layer in order to be able to assign tasks and objectives of the strategy to the proper layer. Preparation of those idealistic definitions depends on the procedure, by which those layers are described. Therefore, in order to have a higher degree of objectivity, those layers have to be identified at least by the several experts in that field. Findings. Analysis of Lithuanian Innovation Strategy for 2010-2020 showed that the Causal layered analysis can be used to identify scope of expected changes. This method of analysis overcomes the ambiguity of public strategy documents by attaching goals and tasks to different layers of perception. Such breakdown of the goals into different layers of perception enables research to evaluate and measure the scope of envisioned changes. Practical implications. The Causal layered analysis gives an instrument for the examination of political documents that are aimed at the future. It gives a theoretical structure, which can decode political documents and give insights about the scope of expected changes. Originality/Value. This research gives not only insights about the scope of desired changes that are anticipated in objectives and tasks of Innovation strategy of Lithuania, but it is one of the first attempts to use Causal layered analysis in Lithuanian context.