Forecasting of the influence of financial institutions loan portfolio change for the economic sectors of the country

Abstract

or perhaps as the result of policies pursued by financial institutions? Prerequisites for the problem situation forces to overhaul loan portfolio managed by financial institutions, evaluate its change on the country's economy sectors, and to investigate these relationships forecasts. Findings: There is a strong link between financial sector development and economic growth. The results showed that the volume of loans has a very close interdependence with the GDP. Data obtained for loan portfolio forecasting for 2013-2017 showed that the growth of loans can be seen in all sectors except construction. Employment should grow only in public and retail sectors. Conclusions (limits, implications etc): The most relationship with GDP was established in retail and public sectors. Determining the correlation coefficients and regression equations between loans and employment the strongest relationship found in retail, industrial and construction sectors. The study encountered lack of data for 2012, since the information about the composition of the loan portfolio in different sectors since November 2011 is no longer provided to the Bank of Lithuania.