Cikliniai svyravimai ir ekonominio efektyvumo prognozė

Abstract

Regular fluctuations from top to slump are called economic cycles. In the cycle there are marked out four phases: top, recession, crisis or slump and rising. In reality not always we can notice when one phase is finished and next begins. Until XIX century business cycle problems are analyzing in the works of economists, they create different theories, which try to explain the reasons of the rise of the economic fluctuations. Two main models of economic cycle theories are marked out: neoclassical and neokeynsistical. Nowadays governments observe economical cycles of their countries and try by dues and public buying to temper fluctuations of economy. If economy rises faster, dues grow and the level of public buying declines. If economy shows the symptoms of stagnation, the dues are reduced and public expenses grow. In other words government uses fiscal or monetary policy. Fluctuations of economic activity are forecasted. Cycle of economy often associates with phases of volume of production. The indicator is GNP and it is the most reliable indicator of dimension of economical state. After Lithuania has established it independence in 1990 in economy there have been lots of changes. In the immediate years (till 1994) economy has declines, later it has begun to “recover” but after crisis in Russia in 1999 there has begun the phase of falling. In two years after that the economy has begun to grow and the accession tin European Union in 2004 accelerates this ascension. Lithuanian economy is in growing phase now, but experts forecast that in the future this rising is going to decline a little.