Kalinauskas, Marius

Lakes supply multiple ecosystem services (ES), key to supporting socio-ecologic systems and human well-being. In the context of future land use and climate changes, it is imperative to anticipate potential impacts on lake ES supply. Hence, studies that deal with future lake ES, such as mapping, are lacking. In this work, we mapped and assessed the future supply of three ES: (1) maintenance of nursery conditions (nursery ES), (2) maintenance of chemical conditions of freshwaters (nutrient regulation ES), and (3) direct and indirect cultural outputs (recreation ES) in Lithuania. Four future scenarios were utilised, integrating land use and climate changes: A0 - business as usual; A1-urbanisation; A2: land abandonment and afforestation; and A3 - agricultural intensification. The projected year was 2050, following the intermediate Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 4.5). The future scenarios were simulated using the open-source software Dinamica EGO based on a 6-step modelling framework. Statistical differences among the scenarios and ES were analysed by applying a Kruskal-Wallis ANOVA test. Spatial analysis was done by performing a Moran's I and Getis-Ord (Gi∗) hotspot analysis. The results showed significant differences in nursery and nutrient regulation ES. The highest supply in nursery ES was observed for the A0 scenario. For nutrient regulation ES, the lowest ES supply was identified for the A1 scenario and for recreation ES, the highest was found in the A2 scenario. The eastern and northeastern regions of Lithuania showed a high ES supply. Hot spots were only identified in the eastern region. These regions are associated with a high area covered by forests and protected areas. The central region shows a low ES supply, identified as a cold spot where the agricultural landscape dominates. The results of the PCA analysis revealed an association between nursery and recreation ES. Nutrient regulation was not associated with the other two ES. Mapping and assessing the impact of future scenarios is vital to anticipating the potential dynamics of lake ES, especially in the context of climate change. This information is essential in the context of environmental management, helping decision-makers to ensure a sustainable ES supply and contributing to human wellbeing.

Coastal and marine ecosystems supply multiple Ecosystem Services (ES). Nevertheless, these ecosystems are among the most impacted by human activities, harming the ES sustainable supply. Since ES are a spatial phenomenon, mapping can contribute to understand ES supply. For this, we use quantitative spatio-temporal frameworks to map and assess the supply of one provisioning (food from fisheries) and two regulating ES (nursery habitats and nutrient regulation), considering two periods: Baltic Sea Holistic Assessment (HOLAS) 2 (2011–2016) and 3 (2016–2021). The ES supply was assessed following a process-based modelling approach, using bio-physical indicators as proxies. The three ES models were applied and validated, showing moderate results. For fisheries and nursery ES the results showed a significantly higher supply in HOLAS 3 than in 2, and for nutrient ES the opposite. This indicates that the assessed ES changed due to environmental activities. The Anselin Local Moran's results showed that most ES index values aggregate in the High-High cluster; Moran's I and semi-variogram results showed a clustered pattern; and the Getis Ord* analysis showed that hot and cold spots corresponded to high and low supply areas. For fisheries, high ES supply areas were located in the central-southern part of the Baltic Sea, while low-supply regions were located in the northern part. For nursery ES, high supply areas were located in the southwestern Finnish and western Estonian coasts. For nutrient ES, high supply areas occurred in the central- and eastern-southern parts close to the coast. Correlations showed a statistically significant negative correlation between fisheries and nursery ES and a significant positive correlation between fisheries and nutrient ES. No statistically significant correlations were observed between nursery and nutrient ES supply. The results obtained are essential to support coastal and marine management and planning in the Baltic Sea as well as international environmental policies and directives.

Land use impacts land surface temperature (LST), especially in urban areas where anthropogenic materials have a high capacity to store energy. Nevertheless, cities have many other land uses (e.g., forests, lawns) that can reduce LST and contribute to high microclimate regulation. In this work, we develop a method to map land use impacts on microclimate regulation supply using an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV). A detailed methodology was developed for 1) UAV's mission planning, 2) field data collection for method validation, 3) RGB and thermal mission reconstruction, 4) land use classification, 5) data extraction and 6) spatial and statistical analysis. The method developed can be beneficial to local authorities and transferable to other realms. It will allow us to understand the impacts of different land uses on microclimate regulation. For this, an area with heterogeneous land uses was used as a test site. • A novel methodology was created to map land use impacts on microclimate regulation supply in urban areas; • High-resolution UAV RGB and thermal imagery for land-use classification and surface temperature analysis; • The method can help understand the capacity of the different land uses on microclimate regulation;.

Protected areas (PAs) supply ecosystem services (ES) essential for human wellbeing. Mapping is a critical exercise that allows an understanding of the spatial distribution of the different ES in PAs. This work aims to conduct a systematic literature review on mapping ES in PAs. In order to carry out this systematic review, the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses method was applied. The results showed an increase in the number of works between 2012 and 2023, and they were especially conducted in Europe and Asia and less in North America, South America, and Oceania. Most studies were developed in terrestrial areas, and the International Union for Conservation of Nature classified them into types II and IV. Most of the works followed the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment classification and were mainly focused on the supply dimension. Regulating and maintenance and cultural ES were the most mapped dimensions in PAs. The most frequent provisioning ES mapped in PAs were Animals reared for nutritional purposes and Cultivated terrestrial plants grown for nutritional purposes. In regulating and maintenance, Maintaining nursery populations and habitats and Regulation of the chemical composition of the atmosphere and oceans were the most analysed. For cultural ES, Characteristics of living systems that enable activities promoting health, recuperation, or enjoyment through active or immersive interactions and Characteristics of living systems that enable aesthetic experiences were the most mapped ES in PAs. Most works followed a quantitative approach, although the number of qualitative studies is high. Finally, most of the works needed to be validated, which may hamper the credibility of mapping ES in PAs. Overall, this systematic review contributed to a global picture of studies distribution, the areas where they are needed, and the most popular dimensions and sections as the methodologies were applied.

Lake ecosystems provide essential ecosystem services (ES). From the multitude of ES provided, recreation emerges as one of the most important due to its link to water-related activities, thus, supporting the socio-economic dynamics of local communities. Ensuring the supply of ES is key, hence, it is necessary to understand its temporal dynamics. In this study, we assess and map recreation ES supply following a multi-temporal perspective, in one of the most touristic lakes in Lithuania. Recreation ES suplly is represented by two components: natural and cultural. The results show a decrease in ES supply between 1990 and 2018. This decrease can be mainly linked to an increasing urban expansion in the region, affecting the natural recreation supply. Statistically significant differences were observed between the years, demonstrating the temporal dynamics of ES supply. Spatially, the highest supply is in the proximity of Trakai town, where numerous cultural infrastructures are located (e.g., restaurants, museums, accommodation). Low areas were located in agricultural land where the density of cultural infrastructures was low. The results are important to demonstrate the non-static nature of ES supply and to identify high and low supply areas. This information is key to supporting spatial planning and environmental management.

Assessing preferences of recreational activities related to cultural ecosystem services (CES) in urban areas is essential for decision-making and urban green space (UGS) management. This work aims to assess the preferences and factors (based on socio-demographic and motivation variables) influencing CES-related activities in Vilnius, Lithuania, to provide scientific knowledge to support more efficient UGS design and management. Participatory mapping was reported as relevant for urban park planning and decision-making and was applied to identify spatially explicit CES. We assessed the perceived relevance of five CES-related activities groups (Social activities, Inspirational activities, Cultural activities, Spiritual activities, and Physical activities) via participatory mapping through an online survey (n = 1.114). The users selected one preferred geographic location for each CES-related activities group and attributed relevance (using a 5-point Likert scale) for a set of motivation items. The results showed that Physical and Social activities were the respondents' most important CES-related activity groups, while Spiritual activities were the less popular. Factor Analysis showed that the respondent's recreation experience preferences, or motivations, were the most relevant variables influencing all the groups except for the Social activities group. Regarding Cultural activities, preferences for understanding things & learn about history were the most relevant variables. For Inspirational activities, the variables developing knowledge & to learn were the most important. Enjoying nature's quietness & frequency was the most relevant for Physical activities. Regarding Spiritual activities, the most important variables were related to the development of spiritual activities and the reflection on personal religious values. Finally, socio-demographic variables mainly influenced social activities, namely education level, gender and age group. The spatial distribution was different between activity groups. Inspirational activities showed the highest dispersion, and Spiritual activities the highest concentration. The results of this work are relevant to municipal managers, as they allow for a better understanding of users' interactions with the territory, its multifunctionality, and potential areas of conflict between conservation and recreation.

Heavy rain events are expected to be more frequent and intense due to climate change, which will likely increase the vulnerability of the urban area to flood episodes. In this context, it is crucial to identify the areas with a high capacity to retain water and the areas where flood protection is more needed. To address this problem, this work aims to map and assess the flood regulation supply and demand ecosystem services in Vilnius, Lithuania. The results showed that Vilnius has a large area with a flood regulation supply, especially in the northeast and southern areas. The areas with high flood regulation demand were located in the old town and several urbanizations scattered inside the city limits. We used the soil-vegetation adjusted index (SAVI) to validate the flood regulation supply index using linear regression. In contrast, the flood regulation demand index was validated by comparing the historical flood points with the model results. SAVI predicted acceptably (r2 = 0.43), and the flooded points identified were located in the areas with high flood regulation demand index. Both models were mismatched (−0.50. P < 0.001), showing that they have different spatial patterns. These results obtained in this work can help planners and decision-makers better plan the areas with a high capacity to retain water and identify the areas where the demand is high.

Coastal recreation as a cultural ecosystem service (CES) is key to human wellbeing. However, anthropogenic impacts at the coast affect CES supply. Mapping and assessing CES can help achieve better coastal planning and management of the coast. Quantitative approaches for assessing and mapping CES are lacking, especially in coastal areas. We develop three quantitative models to assess and map coastal recreation CES supply, flow, and demand. We applied the developed models in the coastal region of Lithuania. The coastal recreation CES supply model comprises natural (e.g., naturalness) and cultural (e.g., points of interest) components. The input variables were (1) analysed for multicollinearity, (2) normalised and (3) overlayed using ArcGIS 10.8. An online survey was undertaken to assess and map CES flow and demand based on locations chosen by respondents where they perform recreation at the coast and the number of activities performed when visiting the coast. The coastal recreation CES supply model results showed that natural recreation is close to the coastline, forest areas, waterlines, and protected areas, while cultural recreation is highest in coastal urban areas. The supply model was validated (r2 = 0.11) based on the respondents' chosen coastal locations for recreation. The low validation allowed us to identify the mismatch between model results and respondents' preferences occurring in Klaipėda urban area. When removing respondents’ points in Klaipeda urban area, the model validation increased (r2 = 0.36). CES flow results highlighted Palanga, Šventoji, and Nida as the prime coastal recreation locations. The results of CES demand show that respondents living in municipalities near the coastline (Baltic Sea and Curonian Lagoon) perform fewer activities when visiting the coast. For other municipalities, a demand pattern was not observed. Our results yielded important spatial information that can be useful for planners and decision-makers in the context of coastal management.

This work aims to map and assess the recreational culture ecosystem services (CES) supply and demand in Vilnius. A novel framework individually assessed natural recreational CES supply and cultural recreational CES supply dimensions. So far, the previous works did not consider both CES components individually. Also, the validation of CES models is scarce and challenging. This work aims to map and assess natural recreational supply CES, cultural recreational CES supply, natural + cultural recreational CES supply, and cultural recreational CES demand. The results showed that the natural recreational CES supply dimension was the highest in protected areas. In contrast, the cultural, recreational CES supply dimension had the highest scores in the city centre. Natural + cultural recreational CES supply was high in the areas where the previous models had the highest values (e.g., protected areas and the city centre). The natural + cultural recreational CES supply model was validated using an online survey. Recreational CES demand was the highest in the areas near the city centre. There was a mismatch between the natural recreational CES supply and recreational demand. Nevertheless, we identified a match between cultural recreational CES supply dimension, Natural + cultural recreational CES supply and recreation CES demand. All the studied parameters had a clustered pattern. The natural recreational CES supply dimension had a hot spot in the northern part of the city. In contrast, cultural recreational CES supply dimension, Natural + cultural recreational CES supply and recreational CES demand were clustered in the city centre. Overall, it is vital to preserve the areas with maximum natural recreation CES supply and limit the urban expansion in these areas. Also, it is essential to reduce the car traffic to the centre and improve public transport accessibility to increase air quality and the impact of pollutants on cultural heritage sites.