Latentinės nusikalstamumo dalies prognozavimo klausimu
Mykolo Romerio universitetas |
| Date Issued |
|---|
2008 |
Latentinis nusikalstamumas - padarytų, bet nepatekusių į apskaitą, neužregistruotų ar neatskleistų nusikalstamų veikų visumos raiškos procesai [1, p. 559]. Kitaip tariant, tai yra „nematoma" nusikalstamumo pusė, kurios neatspindi statistikos suvestinės. Taigi, nėra žinoma nei koks latentinio ir registruoto nusikalstamumo santykis [2, p. 44], nei kaip jis kinta laike ar struktūros atžvilgiu. Tokiu būdu kriminologinių rodiklių analizės rezultatų paklaidas veikia ir šio santykio stabilumo rodiklis. Pastarasis duomuo yra sudėtinis ir vienąjį veikiančių dedamųjų yra kintantis poslinkis tarp nusikalstamų veikų padarymo ir jų registravimo momentų. Siame straipsnyje aprašomas metodas, kurio taikymas, esant patenkintoms reikalaujamoms prielaidoms, leistų įvertinti šio veiksnio įtaką ir kartu sumažinti kriminologinių rodiklių analizės rezultatų paklaidas, tai yra gauti patikimesnius nusikalstamumo rodiklių duomenis.
The state of criminality could be ascertained by assessing the latent part of this phenomenon. The notion "latent criminality" is used to define the unknown, "invisible" side of criminality, i.e. unregistered part of the latter. There is still some uncertainty regarding the ratio oflatent criminality to registered criminality as well as the fluctuation of this ratio time-wise or structure-wise. Accordingly, the instability of this ratio could have a negative impact to the bias associated with the results of analysis of criminological indicators. This issue is partially attributable to the specification of the registration procedure of criminal acts as well as to the publication of statistical data to be analyzed for crirainological purposes. Therefore it's possible to state that the abovemen-tioned ratio is compound. The scholars having purpose to provide criminological characteristic of the latent criminality commonly investigate it as homogeneous phenomenon, i.e. without dissociating the influencing factors into separate researchable objects. On the one hand, such an attitude allows us to obtain a general picture or envisage a more accurate trend of development. On the other hand, the outcome of such research is affected by the range of bias related to the assessment of indicators to be examined. Therefore the inquiries regarding the components of the ratio in question should be viable in respect of analysis of criminological indicators as it would help to minimize the measurement error emerging under the influence of such factors and, in conjunction, to fine-tune the statistical assessment of the situation or to provide a more accurate forecast for the future. [...]