Dynamic capabilities for geopolitical resilience: a systematic evidence synthesis

Abstract

Disruptions in the geopolitical arena, such as wars, sanctions, pandemics, or energy shocks, expose the limits of the resilience models currently in use. We conducted a systematic review of 50 studies (from 2017 to 2025), which we analysed using the Theory–Context– Characteristics–Methodology (TCCM) framework. Thematic synthesis identifies four structural gaps in the extant literature: macro–micro integration deficits, methodological temporal blind spots, sectoral and contextual parochialism, and underspecified mediating mechanisms. We propose the Dynamic Capability Geopolitical Resilience (DCGR) framework to address these gaps. This multi-level, stage-based model integrates macro-institutional boundary conditions, sensing–seizing– transforming capability bundles, dual mediating pathways (business model innovation and absorptive capacity), and HRM microfoundational enablers into a cumulative learning architecture. Five theoretically grounded propositions structure the future empirical research agenda. Our contribution is a theoretically grounded, empirically falsifiable model of geopolitical resilience applicable to conflict-proximate economies. The DCGR framework explicitly accounts for institutional boundary conditions, stage-differentiated capability demands, and interacting mediating mechanisms. It is proposed as a conceptual basis for future empirical testing rather than as a validated model.