Bendrieji nusikalstamumo determinantai
Mykolo Romerio universitetas |
| Date Issued |
|---|
2012 |
Mūsų šalies nusikalstamumo dinamikos pagrindas – ilgalaikė pastovaus ar greitėjančio augimo tendencija1. Kitaip tariant, vienerių ar kelerių metų nusikalstamumo lygio fluktuacijos nenustelbia tvaraus šio reiškinio sklaidos kryptingumo – prognozuotina, kad nusikalstamos veikos Lietuvoje plis. Atsižvelgiant į tai būtina imtis priemonių, galinčių daryti poveikį nusikalstamumo paplitimui, struktūrai, dinamikos tendencijoms, t. y. užkardyti nusikalstamas veikas. Neatskleidus faktorių, veikiančių nusikalstamumo sklaidą, neįmanoma sukurti efektyvių prevencijos priemonių. Tik ar įvairioje literatūroje pateikiamos determinantų2 klasifikacijos, ypač skiriančios bendruosius ir specifinius nusikalstamumui įtakos turinčius veiksnius, įgalina pasiekti šį tikslą? Šiame straipsnyje bus detaliau analizuojamas tokio skirstymo pagrįstumas.
Using propositions of probability theory it has been shown that the general determinants of criminality are academic fiction. The validity of the findings was approved by triangulation of the techniques: some common determining factors referred to in scientific literature were denied on the grounds of deductive reasoning, correlations were verified by application of regression models, which revealed the stochastic relationship among part of criminality (in this case—theft and burglary) and some “general causes and conditions of criminality” that the literature refers to, but disproved the cohesion of the latter with criminality in its entirety. Given the fact that the legal provisions define prevention of criminality as a leverage measure on criminality aimed at precluding from crime committed by identifying and removing general causes and conditions of crime, also referring to extensive funds and human resources allocated for this activity as well as spread of criminality in the country, such a flawed attitude should be reconsidered both at the academic and state level.