Ateities įžvalgos kaip e. valdžios plėtros strateginio planavimo sudedamoji dalis: siūlomas įžvalgų tyrimo proceso modelis
Mykolo Romerio universitetas |
| Date Issued |
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2012 |
Vertingumas – nepaisant to, kad pasaulinėje prognozavimo praktikoje jau ne pirmus metus egzistuoja priemonės, leidžiančios tinkamai įvertinti ir padėti pasiruošti įvairaus pobūdžio ilgalaikiams iššūkiams, Lietuvoje bei daugelyje kitų Rytų Europos šalių planavimo procesas vis dar vyksta centralizuoto, penkmečiu paremto, planavimo tradicijomis. Dėl šios priežasties buvusio socialistinio bloko valstybės nuo kitų regionų atsilieka e. valdžios ir kitos tematikos ateities įžvalgų metodika paremtų projektų skaičiumi (Keenan M., Popper R., 2008), todėl atsiranda šios srities informacijos tuštuma. Nedidelę jos dalį bandoma užpildyti šiuo straipsniu.
This aim is determined by the following objectives—to analyse foresight concept, circumstances and causes of its origin, main guidelines, methods used during foresight exercises and reasons, which determine its application; also, to analyse different suggested foresight exercise approaches and according to the results of the analysis, to form a distinctive e-government foresight methodology, which can be used for already performed foresight analysis or for prototyping a planned one. Thus, the first part of the article covers the most important theoretical aspects of foresight, its development guidelines, and roles in the different stages of the planning process. In the second, practical part of the article, conceptual methodology of e-government foresight is presented, which is made by linking findings, carried out in analysing particular foresight concepts, with different foresight framework analysis results. The research methodology included literature analysis of different scientific sources, systemic analysis of different foresight methodologies and the creation of conceptual foresight framework. Also e-government foresight conception, which describes the e-government foresight phenomenon and defines foresight place in the e-government strategic planning process, could be presented as the summarized conclusion of this article: e-government foresight is a process, which underlies e-government strategic planning, during the communication process of different partners, coordinating participants that are concentrated on longer term actions to achieve consensus on e-government development objectives and confidence in the e-government policy decision-making process, including the broad range of stakeholders.