Bogdziewicz, Katarzyna

Lakes supply multiple ecosystem services (ES), key to supporting socio-ecologic systems and human well-being. In the context of future land use and climate changes, it is imperative to anticipate potential impacts on lake ES supply. Hence, studies that deal with future lake ES, such as mapping, are lacking. In this work, we mapped and assessed the future supply of three ES: (1) maintenance of nursery conditions (nursery ES), (2) maintenance of chemical conditions of freshwaters (nutrient regulation ES), and (3) direct and indirect cultural outputs (recreation ES) in Lithuania. Four future scenarios were utilised, integrating land use and climate changes: A0 - business as usual; A1-urbanisation; A2: land abandonment and afforestation; and A3 - agricultural intensification. The projected year was 2050, following the intermediate Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 4.5). The future scenarios were simulated using the open-source software Dinamica EGO based on a 6-step modelling framework. Statistical differences among the scenarios and ES were analysed by applying a Kruskal-Wallis ANOVA test. Spatial analysis was done by performing a Moran's I and Getis-Ord (Gi∗) hotspot analysis. The results showed significant differences in nursery and nutrient regulation ES. The highest supply in nursery ES was observed for the A0 scenario. For nutrient regulation ES, the lowest ES supply was identified for the A1 scenario and for recreation ES, the highest was found in the A2 scenario. The eastern and northeastern regions of Lithuania showed a high ES supply. Hot spots were only identified in the eastern region. These regions are associated with a high area covered by forests and protected areas. The central region shows a low ES supply, identified as a cold spot where the agricultural landscape dominates. The results of the PCA analysis revealed an association between nursery and recreation ES. Nutrient regulation was not associated with the other two ES. Mapping and assessing the impact of future scenarios is vital to anticipating the potential dynamics of lake ES, especially in the context of climate change. This information is essential in the context of environmental management, helping decision-makers to ensure a sustainable ES supply and contributing to human wellbeing.

Lake ecosystems provide essential ecosystem services (ES). From the multitude of ES provided, recreation emerges as one of the most important due to its link to water-related activities, thus, supporting the socio-economic dynamics of local communities. Ensuring the supply of ES is key, hence, it is necessary to understand its temporal dynamics. In this study, we assess and map recreation ES supply following a multi-temporal perspective, in one of the most touristic lakes in Lithuania. Recreation ES suplly is represented by two components: natural and cultural. The results show a decrease in ES supply between 1990 and 2018. This decrease can be mainly linked to an increasing urban expansion in the region, affecting the natural recreation supply. Statistically significant differences were observed between the years, demonstrating the temporal dynamics of ES supply. Spatially, the highest supply is in the proximity of Trakai town, where numerous cultural infrastructures are located (e.g., restaurants, museums, accommodation). Low areas were located in agricultural land where the density of cultural infrastructures was low. The results are important to demonstrate the non-static nature of ES supply and to identify high and low supply areas. This information is key to supporting spatial planning and environmental management.

Assessing preferences of recreational activities related to cultural ecosystem services (CES) in urban areas is essential for decision-making and urban green space (UGS) management. This work aims to assess the preferences and factors (based on socio-demographic and motivation variables) influencing CES-related activities in Vilnius, Lithuania, to provide scientific knowledge to support more efficient UGS design and management. Participatory mapping was reported as relevant for urban park planning and decision-making and was applied to identify spatially explicit CES. We assessed the perceived relevance of five CES-related activities groups (Social activities, Inspirational activities, Cultural activities, Spiritual activities, and Physical activities) via participatory mapping through an online survey (n = 1.114). The users selected one preferred geographic location for each CES-related activities group and attributed relevance (using a 5-point Likert scale) for a set of motivation items. The results showed that Physical and Social activities were the respondents' most important CES-related activity groups, while Spiritual activities were the less popular. Factor Analysis showed that the respondent's recreation experience preferences, or motivations, were the most relevant variables influencing all the groups except for the Social activities group. Regarding Cultural activities, preferences for understanding things & learn about history were the most relevant variables. For Inspirational activities, the variables developing knowledge & to learn were the most important. Enjoying nature's quietness & frequency was the most relevant for Physical activities. Regarding Spiritual activities, the most important variables were related to the development of spiritual activities and the reflection on personal religious values. Finally, socio-demographic variables mainly influenced social activities, namely education level, gender and age group. The spatial distribution was different between activity groups. Inspirational activities showed the highest dispersion, and Spiritual activities the highest concentration. The results of this work are relevant to municipal managers, as they allow for a better understanding of users' interactions with the territory, its multifunctionality, and potential areas of conflict between conservation and recreation.

Ecosystem services are key for human well-being. They usually are divided into Regulating, Provisioning and Cultural. Due to the impacts of fossil fuels on climate change, alternative energy resources are needed to revert this effect. Renewable energy resources are a good solution. Among them, wind energy can be a good alternative. To better understand the territory's capacity to supply this type of energy, mapping is needed in order to have a spatial understanding of the potential. This work aims to map and assess Wind Energy Potential, Supply and Flow in Lithuania. The results showed that the highest potential was identified near the coast and in the southwest area of the country. Wind Energy Potential was significantly higher in the coastal area and low in the rest of the territory. Wind Energy Flow was the highest in the largest cities (e.g., Vilnius and Kaunas). The correlation between all the components was low. Getis Ord* hot spot analysis confirmed the spatial patterns identified above.

Floods are recurrent events that are expected to increase in a climate change context. Nature-based solutions (NBS) are increasingly used in flood risk management, as they offer multiple co-benefits. Different policies and strategies, such as the European Union Biodiversity Strategy for 2030, advocate for implementing NBS. However, they require more land than grey infrastructure. The needed land often belongs to private persons and is thus protected from unlawful, disproportional state interference. Therefore, state authorities should establish a suitable legal framework to enforce the adoption of NBS on privately owned land. These provisions could stem from national or EU regulations concerning disaster risk management, environmental protection, or spatial planning. For those provisions to be successful, it is important to establish a strong partnership with stakeholders.