Transformations, challenges and security : collective monograph
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2024 |
This collective monograph presents the results of several years of scientific discussion in the MRU Public Security Academy, while also outlining the concept of security as a separate research area in various fields of human activity. It is noteworthy that the first contours of the concept of cohesion as a distinct field of research were drawn by taking into account both the national and international dynamics of the debate and the current context of the field. The results of both international research and that of the community and peers of the MRU Public Security Academy have shown that security is a priority not only at the local level, but also at the international level; at both the micro and macro scales In recent years, researchers have paid particular attention to assessing security, challenges, and risks through a multidisciplinary lens. While interdisciplinarity is crucial in security research, it is also necessary to acknowledge that this field of study possesses certain qualities that make it distinct. This collective monograph presents the work of researchers from the MRU Public Security Academy. The monograph covers a wide range of issues, from economic security to understanding tourism risks. The aim of the monograph is to highlight the challenges of transformation in the context of economic security. The issues raised in the monograph are explored through several objectives: 1. Analyze the transformation of the global labor market in the context of globalization. 2. Identify changes in Ukraine’s economic security and strategic priorities. 3. Describe environmental security in the national security frameworks of countries. 4. Understand the impact of hybrid threats. 5. Analyze the international legal and policy framework for terrorism. 6. Demonstrate the impact of economic security on business. 7. Analyze risk perceptions in the tourism sector. 8. Understand the characteristics of economic security and tourism risk management. 9. Examine the regulation of non-horizontal concentrations in the context of EU economic security. Creating this collective monograph involved the following basic research methods: scientific literature review, economic analysis, analysis of statistical data, analysis of legal acts, synthesis of results, formulation of conclusions, and justification of proposals for security theory and practice.
Item type:Publication, book part[2024][Y1][S004][20]; ; Bilinskienė, IngaTransformations, challenges and security : collective monograph, 2024, p. 211-230Economic security is a relatively young discipline within the field of economic science, yet it plays a critical role in national security. Despite its importance, it has historically received insufficient attention from researchers. Economic security is essential for achieving economic sovereignty, fostering sustainable development, implementing effective social policies, protecting society from environmental risks, and enhancing national competitiveness in an increasingly interconnected global economy. An effective economic security system enables a country to identify threats to its national economic interests proactively, thereby preventing potential damage to the socio-economic structure. Unfortunately, in most cases a comprehensive understanding of economic security often emerges only after economic threats have materialized. In today’s rapidly evolving world, ensuring economic security has become one of the primary priorities for nations, serving as the cornerstone of national security and development. The dynamic nature of global development continuously alters the risks associated with economic security, making it imperative for countries to identify and mitigate these risks promptly. The issue of economic security has gained increased attention, particularly as economies have become more open and integrated into global economic processes. Although economic security is often conceptualized as a social phenomenon that safeguards the vital interests of individuals, society, and the state from potential dangers and threats, there remains no universally accepted definition within the broader context of national security. The main objective of this article is to analyze how economic security impacts economic growth in EU countries. The study shows that for weak economies, a high level of GDPpC growth can be provided even with relatively low development indicator values. At the same time, for advanced economies, high values in these indicators are a prerequisite for continued growth. Based on the model created in the study, it is possible to distribute countries by clusters. Such an interpretation is necessary in order to understand in which direction a country’s economy should develop to ensure sustainable development. Thus, the proposed method makes it possible to objectively assess the potential of the country’s economic development.
15 17 Item type:Publication, book part[2024][Y1][S004][25]In the system of ensuring economic security, a significant role is played by assessing its level in order to further determine the security situation and develop measures for managing the security component of the socio-economic development of countries. The first part of this chapter is devoted to the systematization of existing scientific and methodological approaches to the analysis of economic security and the monitoring of the security situation in order to improve the methodological apparatus for assessing the level of national economic security and the security situation as a whole, which will strengthen the efficiency of economic policy measures in the field of security management and the sustainability of socio-economic development. The authors systematize the features of economic security assessment and prove that the process of economic security assessment should be based on a system of interrelated elements, namely: the direction of assessment, the nature of assessment, assessment tools, and assessment results. It has been determined that in the system of evaluation, it is advisable to highlight such aspects of evaluation as: the security environment and its parameters (determinants); the system of threats and security risks; the security situation and the level of security; the nature of the assessment, which determines its type (qualitative analysis, descriptive analysis, quantitative analysis); the type of assessment, which determines the use of a specific assessment tool that is then represented by a combination of different methods of analysis (the method of expert assessments, the scenario analysis method, indicative methods, questionnaire methods, multidimensional analysis, modeling and forecasting methods, factor analysis, etc.); and the result of the assessment, which is expressed in the form of a presentation of the analysis results (analytical report, strategic plan, survey results, expert forecasts, security indices, forecast and modeled security level assessments, security profiles, risk matrices, risk profiles, etc.). Based on the results of the analysis, a comprehensive approach to the assessment of economic security is proposed, which includes a combination of different emphases regarding the assessment of elements of the economic security system at different hierarchical levels (global, regional, and national), namely: the assessment of the global security environment through the analysis of threats and risks; the multicriteria assessment of countries’ positions in the global economic environment; the comparative analysis of regional security complexes; and the analysis of national peculiarities of the economic security system, which will allow a comprehensive, diverse vision of the features and peculiarities of the security system of national economies operating in the conditions of rapid transformations of the global environment to be obtained.
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The second part of this chapter is devoted to the assessment of the Ukrainian economy’s secure development, taking into account the determinants of the development of the European and global security environment. Based on a comprehensive approach to assessing and monitoring the level of economic security, in particular on the basis of a multi-criteria assessment of countries’ positions in the global economic environment, calculations are made to determine the security positions of Ukraine and their corresponding changes. The calculations are based on the algorithm developed by the authors for assessing the positions of countries in the global security environment, which includes the following stages: the assessment of positions and their changes in key international rankings, systematized by categories of global security risks (economic, social, political, technological, environmental); the evaluation of generalized estimates of indices of key international rankings and statistical indicators of country variation and differentiation; the calculation of structural characteristics of distribution (positioning of countries) in international ratings; the calculation of integrated indices of countries’ leadership positions in the global environment, the use of which in the security assessment system allows us to determine and justify the preconditions for improving the sustainability of development and strengthening the security positions of countries. It is determined that the most well-known international rankings, which reflect the level of leadership potential and sustainability of countries’ development within the world, are based on such indices as: the Easy Doing Index, the Economic Freedom Index, the Sustainable Development Goals Index, the Global Sustainable Competitiveness Index, and the KOF Index of Globalization (all of which concern the economic component of countries’ security development); the Human Development Index, The Legatum Prosperity Index, the Social Progress Index, and the World Happiness Index (social component); The Corruption Perceptions Index, the Democracy Index, the Global Peace Index, and The Fragile States Index (political component); the Global Innovation Index, the Global Knowledge Index, and the Global Cybersecurity Index (technological component); and the Environmental Performance Index and Green Growth Index (environmental component). A comprehensive accounting of these indices and their estimates allows us to calculate the integrated indicator of Ukraine’s leadership positions in comparison with the EU countries and, accordingly, to determine the areas of development that are most significant from the point of view of secure economic development in the context of the formation of vulnerabilities. Therefore, these areas require the greatest attention when developing strategic measures for managing economic security.
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Monitoring, analyzing, and forecasting the risks that lead to threats are key elements of economic security. To achieve economic security, it is necessary to minimize the risks and factors that have a negative impact on the economic sphere by making optimal use of the potential of various sectors of the economy. The use of tourism as an economic tool will have a positive impact on society, enterprises, and territorial associations through the diversification of risks, the development of infrastructure, the improvement of the image of regions, and other aspects. At the same time, there is a risk of various externalities due to environmental and social problems linked to the specific nature of tourism activities. The subject of this article is economic security and tourism risk management. The aim of the paper is to analyze the significance of tourism at all levels in the context of economic security and to develop a mechanism for managing the risks involved. Study objectives: • to set levels of economic security for tourism; • to analyze the contribution of tourism to economic development; • to carry out a tourism risk assessment on the basis of the main risks identified by experts, group them by means of factor analysis, carry out a survey of tourism service suppliers, and assess the identified risks – both external and internal – in terms of the negative impact they have and the likelihood of their occurrence for individual types of tourism activities; • to calculate an integrated risk index for the tourism complex; • to perform a multi-criteria assessment of the inbound tourism complex. Research methods: analysis of scientific literature, expert evaluation, factor analysis, COPRAS method. A survey of experts and the application of the multi-criteria COPRAS method led to the identification of the significance of risk factors. This method was then used to perform an integrated risk assessment. Studies have shown that the COPRAS method can be used to carry out risk assessments based on both quantitative and qualitative indicators. The results of a literature review show that in an economic risk assessment, 68 risk factors or risk assessment criteria have the highest significance in relation to external environmental factors. When comparing the significance of risk assessments in terms of the external and internal environment and personal risks faced by tourism service users, the results of an expert survey show that the most important risks are external environment risks and internal business risks. In contrast, the personal risk faced by tourism service users is rated at only 0.16, which means that the tourist’s exposure to risks depends primarily on external risk factors and the internal risks related to business service providers. The integrated risk index of the tourism complex by type of tourism is calculated, showing that the riskiest type of tourism is extreme sports tourism. The lowest risk in Lithuania’s inbound tourism sector is accounted for by winter wellness and medical tourism. This is due to low risk probability estimates for infrastructure, transport, and health. Extreme sports tourism has high risk ratings due to higher probabilities of economic losses related to health or injury, and other higher risks in the operational, infrastructure, and transport risk groups. The multi-criteria assessment of the inbound tourism complex allows risks to be analyzed according to the main categories and permits their comparison between the different areas of the tourism complex. This model is not only valuable for the assessment of risk in tourism complexes, but also for economic risk assessments of specific enterprises operating in the tourism sector.
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Numerous studies confirm the importance and growing role of tourism – especially in EU countries, where tourism is considered a strategic priority. This is due to the growing demand for tourism services and the potential for the relatively rapid accumulation of tourism potential, which has a multiplier effect on many economic sectors. For these reasons, tourism is particularly important for the less prosperous EU Member States, especially in the context of recession. Risk and the perception of risk play a major role in the development of tourism. This paper aims to disclose how tourism risk is perceived, which scholars analyze tourism risk, and how tourism risk can be classified.
10 26 Item type:Publication, book part[2024][Y1][S004][27]; Transformations, challenges and security : collective monograph, 2024, p. 289-315Objective: This article explores the possibility of the early diagnosis of catastrophic events based on weak signal detection and information field monitoring. Data and Methods: Publications in The New York Times and The Guardian are used as a source of data. To analyze the dynamics of the information field, the concept of weak signals is applied. Text mining methods (text preprocessing, frequency analysis, word clouds) are used. Statistical methods for analyzing distributions and testing hypotheses are used to determine anomalies in keyword frequencies. Results: The study makes it possible to confirm the assumption that the information field begins to change some time before the real onset of catastrophic events. The changes in the information field that preceded the two selected catastrophic events – the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s military invasion of Ukraine – are analyzed. Statistically significant changes in the information field in both cases were observed long before the start of these events. It was revealed that deviations in the frequency of keyword mentions more than 4σ are anomalous, and can signal impending disasters. The assumption that it is possible to track the state of the information field through open media resources is also confirmed. Conclusions: The results of the study confirm the possibility of using the analysis of the information field for the early diagnosis of global catastrophes. The creation of a system for monitoring the information field using the methods of machine linguistics can contribute to the timely preparation and minimization of threats to economic security.
20 22 - book part[2024][Y1][S001][20]Transformations, challenges and security : collective monograph, 2024, p. 356-375
This chapter addresses the complex and contentious issue of defining terrorism within international law and policy. Despite the severe threat that terrorism poses to international and national security, resulting in significant loss of life and the disruption of societal stability, a universally accepted definition of terrorism remains elusive. This paper aims to clarify the current definitions and the challenges in reaching a consensus. The research investigates the various international and regional definitions of terrorism, examining key documents and conventions, such as the United Nations Global Counter-Terrorism Strategy, the EU Terrorism Situation and Trend Report (TESAT), and other significant treaties and resolutions. Through a comparative analysis, the study identifies the core elements commonly recognized in these definitions: the unlawful and intentional nature of the act, the serious harm caused, and the primary objective of intimidation or coercion. Employing a qualitative research design, the methodology involves a thorough literature review and an analysis of international legal instruments and policy documents. The paper scrutinizes definitions from diverse sources, highlighting discrepancies and commonalities, and evaluates the implications of these definitions on international cooperation and legal frameworks. The findings reveal a fragmented landscape, where definitions of terrorism vary significantly across different international and regional bodies. The lack of a unified definition complicates legal proceedings, extradition, and international cooperation in counter-terrorism efforts. The paper underscores the importance of a clear and comprehensive definition to enhance the effectiveness of global counter-terrorism strategies and to ensure consistent legal standards. In conclusion, this paper contributes to the ongoing debate by mapping out existing definitions and proposing pathways towards a more cohesive international legal framework. It calls for intensified efforts to bridge the definitional gaps and to develop a universally accepted definition that can effectively address the multifaceted nature of terrorism.
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This chapter examines the role of environmental security in regional and national development. The authors argue that enhancing environmental security necessitates a focus on the rational consumption of natural resources and the implementation of new approaches to economic activities. The purpose of the chapter is to study the theoretical and methodological foundations of environmental security, develop tools for its assessment, and assess its level in the EU and Ukraine. The authors systematize the conceptual foundations of environmental security, including its constituent elements and related aspects. The subjects and objects of environmental security, environmental security standards, and levels of environmental quality are then determined, before the principles, criteria, and types of environmental security are grouped. The mechanism for ensuring environmental security is determined through the identification of several functions: organizational and preventive, regulatory and stimulating, administrative and executive, security and protective, and restorative. This text examines modern approaches to environmental security measurement and systematizes its evaluation criteria. The authors identify factors contributing to changes in the state of environmental security and develop an algorithm for its assessment. The algorithm involves systematizing environmental indicators that can be used for assessment, grading the complex indicator using an expert method, and calculating both indices and an integral indicator of the environmental component of national security for the countries of Europe and Ukraine. The proposed tools make it possible to rank the EU countries and Ukraine according to their level of environmental security. This ranking includes the Air Quality Index, the Climate Change Performance Index, and the Environmental Performance Index. Countries are also grouped by level of danger. This information can be used to develop policies that make economic development more sustainable while taking environmental aspects into account.
5 32 Item type:Publication, book part[2024][Y1][S004][32]The third section of this chapter is devoted to the justification of scientific and practical approaches to ensuring the security of national economies in the context of deepening global transformations based on the analysis of the current global economic security landscape. This involves defining the factors, conditions, and patterns that will determine the configuration of national security systems and that must be taken into account when implementing countries’ economic security policies. Challenges and risks for the national economic security of countries, and Ukraine in particular, caused by the influence of current transformations of the global environment are identified. The contradictions of the current global economic security landscape, which determine the evolution of approaches to economic security policy development, are highlighted, namely: the relationship between national security and an open economy, the opposition of a unilateral approach to multilateralism, and the need to take into account China’s strategy. Recommendations for improving the quality characteristics of national security systems, considering their growing dependence on global conditions, are justified based on the identification of the components of the economic security system, structural and qualitative requirements for it, and factors of the global positioning of countries that influence security policy. The need for increased flexibility of the national policy of ensuring economic security as an important requirement for the security system are highlighted, given rapid changes in the security environment and the appearance of new security challenges and threats. Based on a comparison of the top 10 global risks that will have the greatest impact on countries’ national security in the next 2 and 10 years, a conclusion is drawn towards a significant difference in the impact of risks in the short and long terms, as well as the appearance of new security risks. Taking into consideration the growing influence of global transformations on countries’ security systems, the importance of international cooperation in solving problems of ensuring economic security is indicated, and recommendations on the development of regional security complexes are provided.
6 8 Item type:Publication, book part[2024][Y1][S004][20]Gorokhova, TetianaTransformations, challenges and security : collective monograph, 2024, p. 231-250The circular economy (CE), an economic paradigm designed to minimize waste and maximize the continual utilization of resources, stands in contrast to the “take, make, dispose” model of the traditional linear economy. Through the lens of this paper, the author explores how digital technologies such as the Internet of Things (IoT), big data analytics, blockchain, and artificial intelligence (AI) can act as levers for transformation, facilitating more efficient resource use, improving product lifecycle management, and catalyzing innovative business models. This article delves into the strategies for implementing digital technologies within circular economy frameworks, emphasizing the dual objectives of fostering environmental sustainability and ensuring economic resilience. The aim of this research is to explore and articulate effective strategies for the integration of digital technologies into CE models. The research helps to identify how these technologies can be leveraged to support sustainable industrial practices that not only minimize environmental impact, but also bolster economic security and promote growth. The article endeavors to bridge the existing research gap by offering a balanced perspective on the economic and environmental dimensions of digital technology adoption in CEs. The main tasks of the research are: to conduct a thorough review of current studies related to the CE and digital technology integration, identifying gaps in research and opportunities for innovation; to analyze specific strategies for the implementation of digital technologies in CE models, considering the challenges and opportunities presented by this integration; to analyze potential risks associated with digital technology adoption in CEs and propose robust management strategies to mitigate these risks, ensuring a secure and efficient transition; and to provide actionable policy recommendations to support the adoption and effective implementation of digital technologies in CEs, aimed at policymakers, industry leaders, and stakeholders. The conclusion opens a discussion on the future directions of digital technology in CE models, emphasizing the need for continued innovation, collaboration, and policy support to realize the full potential of these transformative strategies. This work contributes to the burgeoning body of literature on sustainable development and digital innovation, offering insights for researchers, practitioners, and policymakers alike to provide a deep understanding the complexities of the digital CE.
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